“Wait” is a four-letter economic cuss word

“Wait” is a four-letter economic cuss word. Over the years the tendency for our leaders to “wait and see” has rarely lead to success. Opportunity is not a doorway that swings wide and remains open until one is ready to walk in. Conversely, opportunity is a doorway that is rather elusive and once found you have to knock hard, wedge your foot between the crack and pry away until you get entrance. Our leaders must recognize that introspection, examination and deliberation are all part of the decision process but the decision must be made as quickly and as wisely as possible.

If the elusiveness of opportunity does not give you occasion to take note then contemplate the frequency of the national and international recessions. One thing that that all economists agree on is that economic recession are appearing more frequently and lasting for longer periods. We have not recovered from the last recession and looking at the outlook for 2015 the road ahead is precarious.

We have expended a tremendous amount of resources to survive the last five years and we still have not seen a return to the “good old days” when we were complaining. Think about it, the projected 2015 VI budget shortfall is $60 million dollars away from not doing well! We are trying to get back to pre-recession levels and no one was satisfied with those numbers. We have a lot of work to do and certainly no time to “WAIT”.

As the world economy recovers from the last recession over 70% of Americans still believe that the economy is not getting better. This is because like most of us they work for wages and are not independently wealthy. They have seen the decrease in available jobs as well as the stagnation or decrease in wages.  This is even truer in the Territory as inflation has deteriorated the buying power of all salaries. The top 10% of the country’s wealth has increased 30% while the rest of us have only seen a .04% increase. This one of the largest consumer markets in the world . Its buying power drives many economies including ours. 

If the US faces another recession before we recover from this one the Territory will face even more dire times. We are not a country, we do not print money, and we do not adjust interest rates. We have no tools that control and dictate the economic infrastructure for the Territory. We depend on the consumer spending of the 70% that are not confident in the US economy for our tourism numbers and now a Republican congress for federal assistance. If this consumer base doesn’t feel confident, they do not spend. This is the economic reality of 2015.

In order for us to receive the economic growth we certainly deserve, we are going to have to develop the fortitude for risk. The old adage “nothing ventured, nothing gained” hold s true. We keep looking for the perfect project, with the perfect investor, for the perfect location. Ladies and gentlemen, new ideas are ugly and scary and rarely have the benefit of mass public appeal; if they did we would all be billionaires. We would know where the next, Google, Facebook or Tesla would come from, sign up and live happily ever after. Risk is something that we have to embrace because let’s face it, as the years go by we have less and less to lose!

Calculated risk is a must, I will never argue that you shouldn’t look before you leap but as you look, recognize that the gap is getting wider and the leap will have to be higher and longer. God forbid we are faced with another global recession. It would be like finishing 23^rd in a triathlon only to be told that you have to run a 40K marathon before you get some rest.  How well we do as a territory will depend on our ability to be aggressive, decisive and supportive of leaders who are brave enough to try new approaches and take RISK! No one is coming to save us. It is up to us to make the decisions to move these islands forward. We can do a lot of things but we cannot afford to WAIT! Not for another legislature, not for another administration and most certainly not for another recession.

Sometimes experience means knowing that it can’t be done

Sometimes experience means knowing that it can’t be done, and that’s the problem. Innovation is the charge of the day and the buzzword that is used loosely in social and political circles. Yet have you ever wondered how experience impacts innovation? If it’s one thing that experience lends itself to, is knowing that it can’t be done, probably because you have tried it before. Let’s take a look at how that would of impacted history.

One of the most amazing accomplishments of man is the ability to fly. No matter how you think of it, it’s pretty amazing that an iron vehicle that weighs tons manages to not only take flight but do so loaded with cargo and passengers. Can you imagine how bizarre the individuals who purported human flight seemed hundreds of years ago? Just picture some guy working in a blacksmith shop or as a ranch hand tending horses saying that one day, man’s mode of transportation for long distances would be air travel. They would have thought him/her insane and may have even accused him of witchcraft. They would summarily convince him or at least try to convince him that it could never happen and thus it would never happen. Imagine if the Wright Brothers ascribed to the same philosophy? We would of still been riding bicycles!

Anything truly amazing that man has accomplished has been done void of the benefit of experience. These individuals had the audacity to believe the impossible could be accomplished.  We grew up watching the Jetsons, in awe of people talking through their watches, using videophones and eating food that was instantly prepared. We are living in that world now with cellphones, videoconferencing and microwaves!

True innovators are always pioneers in their field. They are the ones that lead commerce and society to new heights of accomplishments. They always carry labels like, crazy, stupid, eccentric or just plain loco, but every once in a while one of them realizes their hair-brained scheme and our way of life is transformed.

Now more than ever the benefit of experience is being negated, simply by the speed of technology. Everything that we implement to make things move faster incrementally makes everything else we do faster. It also multiplies our mistakes that much faster. Think about how long people listened to the conventional phonograph or record player as we know it. In the last 20 years alone those records, cassette tapes, reel to reels, VCR’s, laser discs, floppy discs and CD’s have all gone obsolete. The technology you adapt to today will be obsolete in less than two years.

Coming back from a 30,000 ft. view, how does this translate to the workplace? This is the perfect excuse to give inexperience a try. As we move further into the summer, I am pleased to see many bright young graduates returning to our shores from the Universities on the mainland and UVI looking for opportunity. It’s time for us as a community to give them one! The one thing that we are positive of is that they haven’t done it before and they don’t know that it can’t be done.

The future success of the Virgin Islands is forever married to the education we provide and the ability to attract and retain talent. This is the talent that we will need to man our workforce and power our economy. While tourism will probably always occupy a large part of our economy, we have an opportunity to provide services to the world via the Internet. Adaptation to using videoconferencing through Skype, networking through Facebook/Linked in or accessing information through Google, these are the masters of the modern day economic marketplace.

Not knowing you can fail, strongly increases your chance of success. Young people who still have the light in their eyes and believe that they can save the world and more specifically the Virgin Islands, just might. And even if they shoot for the stars and hit the clouds, they are bound to be a valuable asset to your organization. Remember, sometimes experience means knowing it can’t be done…..and that’s a problem.